The Blog of Jonas Martinsson

I read Global Catastrophic Risks not only to deepen my understanding of global risks, but also to find ways to practically do something about it. Hopefully, blogging about the chapters as I digest them will assist on both accounts. “All else being equal, not many people would prefer to destroy the world. […] Therefore I suggest that if the Earth is destroyed, it will probably be a mistake.” Eliezer Yudowsky goes on by describing mistakes in human reasoning and how flawed our intuition is. The heuristics we use to evaluate probabilities, form the basis for how we deal with all types of existential risk. Knowledge of human psychological flaws are therefore important as we shape agendas for risk prevention. It is interesting to note that knowledge of these very biases and flaws does not make us much smarter. Research shows that when we compensate for our known biases, they are reduced by some 50% but never go away completely. “It is a terribly frightening thing, but peopl...

I read Global Catastrophic Risks not only to deepen my understanding of global risks, but also to find ways to practically do something about it. Hopefully, blogging about the chapters as I digest them will assist on both accounts. This is the weakest chapter so far. Millenialism is the expectation that the world will be destroyed and replaced with a better world. Millenial belief comes in two flavors: religious and scientific. The religious form spans many religions, while scientific millenialism is best exemplified by the Singularitarians , led by Ray Kurzweil . While the larger portion of the chapter outlines different types of millenialism, the question is: how does it relate to evaluating  global catastrophic risks? This is where the chapter truly fails. While the author brings forward examples ( Y2K ) where millenial impulses helped to bring risks to the global agenda, there are no genuine suggestions how to factor in millenialism when evaluating risks. The bottom lin...

I read Global Catastrophic Risks not only to deepen my understanding of global risks, but also to find ways to practically do something about it. Hopefully, blogging about the chapters as I digest them will assist on both accounts. The book’s chapter 3 discusses our understanding of evolution, given the long perspective. Evolution is not unique and has occurred several times in our history. Tool-making hominoids with communication skills have evolved independently in Africa (our ancestors), Europe (the ancestors of the Neanderthal) and south-east Asia (“hobbits”). Environmental change is the major catalyst to drive evolution. Once species have filled their niches in the wake of an environmental change, adaption of organisms is only fine-tuned. It has also been shown that in the last 40,000 years evolution has been driving our species forward, 100 times faster than before. Why this is so, is still unclear. Today, psychological pressures and new environmental factors decide w...

With UN's failure to implement the strategy laid out by the former Secretary-General, who will protect humanity from one the most dangerous threats, bioterrorism ?  With great foresight, former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan brought the threat of bioterrorism to the UN agenda in 2006. In his recommendations for a global counter-terrorism strategy he writes: " The most important under-addressed threat relating to terrorism, and one which acutely requires new thinking on the part of the international community, is that of terrorists using a biological weapon. [...] They can [...] bring incalculable harm if put to destructive use by those who seek to develop designer diseases and pathogens. The answer to biotechnology’s dual-use dilemma will look very different [than that of nuclear weapons]. But the approach to developing it must be equally ambitious.[...] What we need now is a forum that will bring together the various stakeholders — Governments, industry, sci...

I read Global Catastrophic Risks not only to deepen my understanding of global risks, but also to find ways to practically do something about it. Hopefully, blogging about the chapters as I digest them will assist on both accounts. The book begins with discussing long-term astrophysical processes with a focus on the lifespans of our planet, solar system, galaxy and the Universe. These are the least immediate, but at the same time the most difficult risks to avoid. As such, there are not much we can do about them, right now. Hopefully, if we succeed to manage the other risks we're facing now and will face in the future, we will reach a point in time where we will have to deal the timely demise of the Earth, and later, the Universe. 3.5 billion years from now, the Sun will have exhausted its storage of hydrogen and increased its temperature enough for Earth's biosphere to be unable to sustain biological life. But even before Earth's temperature reaches that level, alr...

What if humanity were extinguished right now? Have you ever considered that scenario? No one can provide an accurate probability of such an event happening, but the fact that it could happen is indisputable. While personal survival is a major force for the individual, humankind's survival is the ultimate goal for us as a species. Individuals do almost anything in their power to prevent their own destruction, but what are we doing as a species to ensure our own survival? I would argue that we're spending more effort protecting specific zoological and botanical species than ourselves. Although humanity is not an extinguished species, there are several kinds of events which could wipe us all out in a matter of hours. We cannot continue to neglect the importance of protecting the survival of humankind. Threats are manifold and I plan to discuss these in future posts as I digest the book Global Catastrophic Risks , which deals with these important issues. Chapters I have r...

Recently, the submission deadline passed for Google's 10 to the 100th contest , with a stupendous $10 million in the prize pool. More than 100,000 ideas to change the world were received. My entry has the extraordinary goal of saving the human race from extinction. Here's my idea. As a background, let's take the Fermi Paradox . It asks why we haven't had contact with alien lifeforms, despite our belief that alien civilizations are common in the universe. One theory trying to explain it is that a Great Filter stands in the way of the evolution of civilizations, causing their annihilation before reaching a stage where they are able to communicate with other civilizations. Such a filter could be either behind us or in our future. If it is in our future we need to mitigate its risks and prepare for it. Regardless if you believe in the Filter or not, the fact is that a number of existential risks pose a danger to our existence as a species. Some philosophers are estimatin...